tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 5, 2013 4:00am-6:00am EDT
hello. welcome to today's "worldwide exchange." i'm ross westgate. >> and i'm kelly evans. >> george sore ross warnings about the impact of the monetary view. he says it could turn the yen's fall into an avalanche. >> what japan is doing is quite dangerous because they are doing it after 25 years of just simply accumulating deficits. >> another month of stet steady job gains are seen boosting the u.s. economy even if washington plans to tighten its belt with
further budget cuts. and the european stocks hit a one-month low. >> plus, samsung is forecasting a 50% profit jump for the first quarter. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> all right. now, it may be easter week, but there's enough for you to look at. >> enough view? >> enough for you. >> enough for me to look at? >> yes. >> what do you mean? >> volatility, there's -- >> oh, i see. plenty going on. it's very busy. for a short week, it's felt like one of the longest weeks, despite the fact that it's only been four days. look at some of the trading session charts.
>> 32 to 65 yield range day. >> especially when you have a yield that's that low. it magnifies what we're talking about. >> let's remind you of what is on today's show. plenty to get to. we'll speak about the ongoing fiscal crisis in italy. she says a return to the polls in the coming months is now likely. >> and we'll head to milan taking the polls to the luxury goods space. >> and we'll be joined by axle van troddenburg tr shing pore to weigh in on the future of abe-nomices. >> and we'll speak with the vice president of tara motors as the company puts a green modern spin on the old fashioned tuk-tuk. >> i'd like to do that. we'll get the latest
reaction from seoul. but first, george soros has suggested while the governor kuroda has shown courage, the move could send japan into a free facility. >> what japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because they are doing it after 25 years of just simply accumulating a deficit and not getting the parliament going. what they are doing to get something started, they may not be able to stop it. >> joining us for the first part of the show today, raja federa. what do you think about what the bank of japan is doing and the spillover effect for those who
think we're going to have a bounce from japan. are we going to see the spillover from the size of this quantitative easing? >> i think first of all, put yourself in the japanese shoes. you basically have your yen/dollar 110 three or four years ago before the lehman collapse. then the two, three-year losses of subprime in america basically put pressure on bernanke and the fed to bail out the u.s., how the u.s. bails out itself, quantitative easing and brings the yen/dollar to 78. if you are japanese, you'll probably get pissed and say fight back. kuroda is going to bring in more. japan is a situation where basically the growth stat is extremely as well as as much as the growth wealth. when you look at the balance sheet, you need to balance with liabilities.
what i expect is the way they'll get out of it and join the global currency war and at least getting back to the dollar 1110. >> but it's all nominal. >> it's all nominal. and the problem is, remember, the only reserve currency in the world is the u.s. dollar. and that has decided to debase itself. they went nuclear. they pressed a button, $3 trillion from zero. so think about russia and the middle east, then china is supposed to be later. why? simply because it's pecked to the dollar. so basically with european and the japanese, yes, they're in the pain in the capital emerging market countries, which is being very vocal. so what's happened is the ecb, the bank of japan has no choice. you have to join the race. otherwise, what happens, you
import massive deflation and job losses. but they've not joined the race. which eventually topple -- >> is europe the new japan? look at what's happening. japan is kind of causing this repricing of where investors are looking for yield around the world. >> here, totally agree with what george says. first of all, clearly, this decisionous of the bank of japan is probably going to end up being in a weaken yen. secondly, i don't think europe is going to be exactly as high as japan. the ecb has put every effort in terms of housing countries on conditionality. basically, use your own job, fist your own problem, and i'm here to help. i think in europe short-term probably the pain is going to be slightly higher, but so is the
reform. >> let's get a little bit -- i want to talk specifically about europe and japan. we want to remind people, there's a warning the region could be heading for a slow death if it continues on its austerity path. is it structural or do they just need more stimulus? anyway, again, he compared europe's future to japan' past. >> for 25 years, japan was dying a slow death. >> right. >> and now they woke up. and the fascinating thing is that in europe, the austerity program is actually leading the eurozone into exactly the same
policy that japan is now trying to escape after 25 years. >> now, banks in cyprus were shut again yesterday this time because of the strike by bank workers. thousands of employees walked off the job for two hours. the banking union says pension funds aren't fully protected as part of the country's international bailout. >> at the same time, the ecb put the blame for cyprus's bailout quickly on the government market. he pledged taxing depositors would not become normal procedure. >> this is no temporary plate. i am absolutely sure -- we didn't have a chance to talk, by the way, but i'm absolutely sure that the chairman of the group has been misunderstood. >> okay.
doude, you say this is not about structural reforms. i say to you it's about fiscal stimulus and that's why they won't be late in gentleman pap. >> let's take asuka out now for the time being because of the global competitive map. they joep, but not yet. you have a situations where into japan were abdomen sush. in europe, you have the growth pain. they don't pay themselves up. so if you look at the workers, what i think is going to happen is the only way the eurozone rebalance, they beat more
inflation. but some in europe tighten the belt because they've been in the last five, ten years. and at the same time, you rebalance. the north gets paid a bit. >> but germany's demographics are potentially worse or just as bad as japan's. if you look at the jap fees economy in the way its pop legislation has aged, will all of this if terms of increasing stabilization going to help them or hinter them. >> on one of the issues, the european organization got together because -- they need that. if you look at the demographics, i wouldn't be surprised if eventually you'll get turkey down the line inside.
there's going to be a minority in 2014. you never thought that two years ago. >> and the same thing happening in britain. >> and that's positive for the world. secondly, when you look at the key theme today in europe, i think it's affecting a bit more inflation in the north and a bit more discipline. i totally shared with mario draghi on cyprus. this is an island with 700,000 people. you're talking about a million euro deposits and inhabitants. whether this was the wealthiest people on the planet, it's a shortcut. let's create a money laundering center for russia, rather than competing on tourism or jobs, let's take a shortcut. so i think at the end of the day, it's fair what has happened. consider the politicians who were appalling, what these guys did, the there is a report that
one of the family took 21 million euros out of the bank three days before the agreement. secondly, one of the reason why they decided the first template to put haircut below 1100,000 euros, we have more than enough. let's prove there's more and get themselves off the hook. >> you can understand why they did what they did. it's just more interesting. >> from a bit of a graphic, it's appalling, shocking, and i think it's only fair they get elected. >> what choice did they have? >> they had no choice. when people say let's get out of the euro, i say, yes, tell me what you're going to be out of the euro. they have no competitive edge. it's the same. the only different is in which part of the club are you?
are you in or are you out? >> if it's being argument in berlin right now. >> yeah. the latest forecast i think was announced. cyprus will contract 30%. >> oh, yes. the ifs admitted 13%. that's changed in the last three weeks. >> and besides all of that, something out of the u.s. today. >> yes. today we get the jobs report. big day. fist friday of the month. we even out just how many jobs down to the 1,000 u.s. economy reportedly added in the prior months. 200,000, but don't quite believe that because given the softer adp data, the whisper number is probably closer to 170 thois. this follows gains of 236 thousand in february. it's important to watch the labor participation rate at 7.7% and this is the rate people are
watching with what the fed importantly may or may not do next. we want to know wa your forecast is. send us an e-mail or tweet us. let's remind you where we are trading ahead of the unemployment report. it's been pretty flat this morning for the major indices. the ftse 100 is just off 0.4%. the ibex outperforming up 0.9% and the ftse mib up 0.7%. let's show you where we stand with bond rates. 5.2% is the yield. incredibly volatile session. we've been trading between a 32
and a 65-basis point change. there's a real discussion on this issue. ten-year italian yields, low today at 4.5%. ten-year bund yield at 1.25%. gilt yields yesterday down to the lowest since november. 1.69. currency markets, we saw euro/dollar yesterday down to 1.28%. 11.29 is where we stand at the moment. dollar/yen, 96.28. we did hit a 3 1/2 low earlier. the dollar climbing 3.6% against the yen yesterday. cable firmer than where we were yesterday at 1.52.
a largely negative day today in asia. the euphoria of the boj continues with equities adding 1.6% today after jumping over 5% during the past two sessions. but the yen, in fact, paring back earlier losses possibly due to concerns over escalating geopolitical risks. look at the japanese inducks on reflationary policies. divide starback raised its showing. hong kong tumbled yesterday to a four-day market. but rising worries of a new
strain of bird flu in china weighing on sentiment. analysts say this could be due to an exit of funds from hong kong after the boj's aggressive easing. and another market lagger with south korea, the kospi lost ground for the fifth straight session amid tensions with the north. samsung was not able to get a lift from that better than expected preliminary quarterly earnings. elsewhere in australia, the asx 200 pulled back another 0.45% ahead of the asian markets. back to you guys. still to come, samsung electronics is forecasting a larger than expected first jump in first quarter profit. who is to thank? we'll get the latest when we come back.
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samsung expects profits in the first quarter to jump. chery kang has more for us in seo on ul. >> hi, kelly. it looks like it will break its trend of five straight quarters of record earnings this time. if you take a look at the record sales, coming in at 52 trillion korean won came off by more than 7% on quarter given that it's a traditionally slow season for the first quarter. but in terms of operating profit, not so bad here. tipped at 8.7 trillion yuan. up 53% on year with some analysts explaining the high margin of its high-end smartphones. but a samsung electronics official told sbs cnbc that the first quarter was mainly pulled by growth in dram chippes and
televisions rather than the usual strong spots of mobile units this quarter because samsung did not come out with a new smartphone this past quarter for a change. that is just yet. and its next smartphone, next flash of smartphone, galaxy s4 will be hitting stores at the end of this month and that's what's leading many analysts here to expect that will pick up on the earnings streak this year. >> kelly, thanks very much for that. the korean market is down sharply today, as well. meanwhile, the italian market will have tory lease bonds to pay off $26 billion of unpaid bills through 2014. at the same time, fitch has warned that bank loan impairment charges remain high because of the weak economy.
the reports say the outlook of the sector remains negative due to another challenging year with filled with economic uncertainty. let's get your view on this. it's interesting to see italian and spanish markets outperforming today. is this actually now also related to japan? is there a view that if the carry trade comes back on, that investors in japan as they cut their currency hedges will buy spanish italian debt which will boost bank assets? >> well, i think it's that simple. fundamentally, imagine the pension assets, which had to deliver a four to six century turn over the medium turn. right now, they can add to a five to ten- year boost. japanese basically bonds for lack of one defense. basical basically, they have no choice. what happens is the spillover
effect and the old credit curve gets tightened. that's the reason why spain and italy will have support. imagine the situation where it's basically degearing. it is reforming. so eventually time helps. secondly, they don't have a government for the last 50 days and yields have not really moved. why? for two reasons. the fact that any government in europe has already handed the keys to the ecb because they've been forced not to spend more than 3% deficit. no matter what you do, it has been more than 3%. >> to the point of which means it doesn't matter, anyway. there's room for them to do what they need to do. >> and basically that's why they decide. in case markets were to decide we know you're not going fast enough, then they get the truck and get out of the country. secondly, as far as italy is concerned is this government finally is doing what it should have always been doing. which is two years ago on the
berlusconi government, do you remember in summer 201 1, what happened is these guys, 50, 60 billion euros of unpaid bills. in order to cheat the deficit number, they decided not to pay. this has basically made the economy much worse. the fact that italy has already defaulted internally, clearly that is totally ineffectual. >> investors still don't care, though. would it be better if the market cared more if there wasn't a natural deterrent from pensions to change economy? is it an okay that we're hanging in there snch. >> just a a normal analogy, and i asked you to run the london marathon, what happened, you get
a heart attack and you die. if you get to run the marathon and you lose 10 euros per year, that is healthier. the bite of time versus what you do. the direction was totally unacceptable. you are wrong. what happens is they said left turn. that's number one point. number two, now the urgency is coming back and it's extremely, in my view, debt meantal to the countries over the last 40, 50 days they haven't been able to create a government. >> some people are saying it makes no difference because monte continues to push through these measures. >> they're still in government, but the reality is italy needs a far reaching structural reform. the issue is you have electricity that costs 30% more than the european average.
you've got ecb -- >> is there a single party out there who is going to come in the next year and be able to deliver the structural reform? >> the italians express the preference to have a prime minister. there's an excellent guy, very pro reform. his age is 39. the full prime minister potentially in office goes from 62 to 78. so there's clearly a generational gap. actually, i would say almost jumping one generation, you're skipping the 50s and you go straight to the 40s. and i think the day back, in my view, it's still one of the largest countries in the world, luxu luxury, today it is making the money because of a different situation in economics. >> okay.
thank you. >> and we're going to talk about prada in a little bit later. meanwhile, george so on ros says the market is still the most dynamic in the world. but stressed the government must continue to target reform. >> china is probably one of the most dynamic of the markets in the world. it's still a developing market. it has to change its growth model, but the government is aware of it and i think with the new government, it is going to have a new growth model. and there china has been -- in switching and adjusting so i think it has a very good chance of doing it. although there are problems with this outfit. >> what's the biggest problem
you see in china's hidden gap? >> well, you do have -- everybody knows that there is a property bubble that needs to be deflated. but thing the government also knows it and also has the resources to do it. so iveng i think it won't end in a crash. >> joining us from singapore is axle van troddenburg. axle, thanks for joining us. it's interesting to hear george talking about china earlier. he's talking about japan. looking at the relationship between the two countries, how much has political dispute dragged down their own growth? >> well, we see this. you have to look at the relationship is very strong. they have very strong economic and financial ties.
apart from that that japan and china have strong ties in the whole region. so we see there is still very solid basis for cooperation. much room for growth. and first a development. so i think this is something we would like to focus on. >> the value of japanese exports between 10% and 15% last year. >> that's right. but you have also to see that the value chain in other countries has been bmt up by the japanese. what you're seeing on the growth is that both countries are recording better growth than last year. we see also particularly in china that after some weakening last year, namely going from 9.3% in 2011 to 7.5% in 2012 that we are expecting, again, a
pick up of growth in china and currency we're estimating a growth rate from 2013 in the order of 8.3%. >> so you're looking at maybe 8.3% right now for china and especially in light of what's happening policywise in japan. do you still see less than 1% growth for the japanese economy this year? >> well, it depends how quickly this package is starting to bite. but certainly this stimulus packet will have an effect on the growth. it's always a question how quick it will have. it will have an impact not only in japan, but in the rest of the region given the enormous linkages of the japanese economy in east asia. we could see spill over effect in other countries, as well. >> axle, would you put it at better than 2% of the japanese economy this year? >> well, i would not at this place want to speculate since we
will have to do the numbers and the announcement has only been made. so i wouldn't like to speculate how much of an effect it will have. >> but it sounds like you say we should watch not just japan, but the rest of the region, as well. axle van troddenburg, thank you very much, sir. only at the job in a couple of months in what is a tumultuous period. we'll preview prada's full year earnings when we come back.
george soros warns about the impact of the bank of japan's monetary boost. he says it could turn japan's fall into an avalanche. >> what japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because they are doing it after 25 years of simply accumulating deficits. another month of steady job gains boosting the u.s. economy this after washington plans to tighten its belt further with
additional budget cuts. samsung forecasting a 50% jump in profits in the fist quarter. european stocks are fairly mixed. the cac 40 and xetra dak are fairly flat. the ftse 100 is down 0.5%. france is seeing fresh lows, the ten-year below 1 is.8%. if you compare that with the u.s., it suggests france could avert. the ten-year bund, 1.86%. spain and italy, 4.9% for italy, under 4.49% for italy.
there's a lot of action, could have been one off related to people selling heavily into the market. nevertheless, that yield is jumping before falling back towards that 0.5% on the ten-year. >> and we've got minutes from the latest meeting the financial policy committee is supposed to be regulating banks. they wanted to draw a line on capital. they wanted to rule out further action to increase banks' resilience on the basis they've noticed a couple of those head up to lending to 2012. >> now a story that's occupied a lot of chatter this week. as investors grow increasingly skeptical of banks and monetary policy around the world, some are seeking safety known at bitcoin. it saw its value surge nearly
four times to $145 in the month of march. the currency is pretty volatile to its own glitch. in fact, bitcoin's value plummeted this week touching as low as $1117 a coin before recovering somewhat. let's get more now from alistair, who is recovcovering story. >> bitcoin is one of the few digital currencies. it matters because it doesn't have a central authority governing it, really. and one of the fears at the moment is governments taking away money from depositors that have money in banks. >> but what's interesting is the kinds of people who are looking to bitcoin as an alternative, it says are people using it for nefarious purposes, anyhow. this isn't so much protecting yourself as involving yourself in it. >> right. there is that upside do it,
absolutely. as a payments platform, it has a lot of potential, given that global banks in particular charge lot fees to transfer money abroad and so on and so fort. >> how does it work, then? what's the value of a bitcoin? >> i can't say that i know the ins and outs of the computer program that determines its mind using the processing power to develop it. >> it's algorithmic. >> quite right. >> the value tore people is quite -- >> is this to a form of growth? >> possibly. possibly. >> it could be magic beans. i don't know. >> again, it's value derived. >> if people believe it works, it works. >> right. >> what do you think of it? >> i think it's one of the most
ridiculous things i've heard in my life and the reason is very simple. think why gold over the last 5,000 years since humans have been on this planet is a scored value. currency should be seen as a store of value. this thing, by the way, so if you think about it, look at the chart has gone from 5 to 118 go to 110 within two months, this is not store value. this is an odd ponzi scheme where you are backing on greater full fear. >> but you were just telling us u.s., japan, it's all currency manipulation. how is this different? >> it's very different. highs and lows have been in the 10% to 20%. this thing has a market cap of a
billion. so a billion dollars in place. someone is trying to buy it and hopefully tomorrow you can sell it for a high price. that's not the currency. that's a ponzi scheme. >> alistair. >> it's the development of dick tall currency. in an evolutionary sense, bitcoin may not be the answer, because it has a lot of flaws, but i think the tendency towards map flare is a good one. >> they're going to introduce bitcoin atms, websites accepting this as a form of payment. people need to be extremely careful here before they fully integrate it into the payment system. >> i can tell you, i think no central bank, no pension funds, no institutional investor will ever put a dollar into this thing.
it's a way of smuggling money because no one knows who you are and basically tomorrow someone else can take you out. people can -- it's been varied since human nature has been that in the 1700s. this is more ridiculous. >> david, thanks for that. alistair, thanks very much for joining us. do you have any particular affiliation with prada? >> no. >> no. we'll let you go. now, the market showed its appreciation.
toshiko has more of the story from tokyo. >> hi, ross. the tokyo market soared today on the bank's full easing measures. the nikkei 225 neared a five-year high briefly popping the 13,000 mark at one point. mitsubishi ufj financial up 5% and sumi realty dwomt development surged 12.6%. the yen is currently trading at 96 level. it hit the 97 yen benchmark at one point, which is a fresh 3 1/2 year low against the dollar. this helped major exporters such as toyota shares to rise 3.4% and canon up 1 is.5%. the yield on japan's benchmark ten-year note fell as low 3.15%, the lowest on record.
appearing at a parliamentary hearing today, the bank boj chief kuroda said that financial markets are not yet in a bubble and are unlikely to be very soon. many analysts are seeing that the central bank has clearly changed and this uptrend will continue. back to you, ross. >> thanks for that. have a good weekend. italian luxury goods prada is due to report earnings. >> and we're going to talk about that in a few moments. also, japanese start up thinks the electric rig shore is the answer. i love this. we'll be talking to the vice president of tara motors live when we come back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
the business of fashion. >> the business of fashion when it comes to prada, how will are they doing? >> prada has performed outstandingly. especially in the difficult economic environment. you mentioned earlier this mumu brand. the past couple of seasons, not only has it received critical acclaim, exceptional momentum and sales, as well. >> the interesting thing about fashion, especially higher end fashion is that critical acclaim and fashion success haven't always gone hand in hand. but it sounds like it's important for them to get fashion right. >> yeah. i mean, i think the magic ofpra prada. it's also her husband who is the ceo. the two of them have this ability to take mrs. prada's incredible creativity and translate it into commercial success. you don't often see that in very creative brands like bra da. often brands struggle in translating what is run away
creativity into commercial products. >> what is the secret to making it commercial? >> in fashion, we call it merchandising. if, for example, one season i remember a few seasons back mrs. prada had done all this beautiful swiss lace in her collections, which was extremely expensive. a few months later when the election appeared in stores, of course, they merchandise the store with the beautiful lace dresses. but they also accompanied that with printed schiff dresses which had a print on it. >> a lot easitory manufacture? >> it's not cheap. i wouldn't use the word cheap. >> cheaper. >> less expensive and still, you know, directly linked to the runway idea that the consumer will see and want to buy into. >> but here is what i wonder. if the recent success of prada because it's more understated, because it's not the lvmh or the
chanel, but now consumers are looking for something more sophisticated and maybe prada match that's better. >> it's true that prada doesn't necessarily have like the canvas logo that gucci have, but they also have identifiable shapes. so the in-the-know consumer is still able to identify the prada brand. i actually say prada have seasonal logos. every season their creative ideas on the cat walk are so specific and so different from everyone else that anyone who watch that's brand is able to see it on the street. >> what's the most important thing for prada's success maybe for the rest of this year to carry on what we've seen over the last six to 12 months? >> well, with all luxury and fashion brands and maintaining growth in asia and china, it's
absolutely critical. i would say that they should continue to play more and more attention on mumu. there was a time when memew was seen as the secondary brand to prada. a few years ago, they changed the strategy and now they're trying to elevate it. now it has its own identity. and i think there's real growth potential in that brand. >> all right. good to see you. thanks so much for you to coming in. tara motors want to put more nonpolluting vehicles on asia's roads. their solution is the electric tuktuk. it can reach speeds of nearly 50 kilometers per hour. joining us from tokyo, the vice president of terra motors corporation. thanks very much, indeed, for joining us.
presumably, if you're going to have electric tuk tuks, you need electric infrastructure to go with it. who is going to roll that out? >> i'm sorry, could you repeat that? >> yes. presumably, if you're going to have a rollout of electric tuk tuks, you need an electric charging infrastructure, do you, or do you plug into a normal main stock? >> yes. our tri score can be used with normal 100 volt or 240 volt electric socket. so we can charge electricity anywhere. >> so what is the game changer about this? what is the game-changing aspect?
>> i cannot hear. could you repeat that? >> yeah. what is the most striking difference about this new model? >> main difference is, you know, normally it's developed for countries so that while people think -- however, this is totally different. our mobility is for countries. so this ev carries one driver then five or six passengers. so this is used for very, you know, efficient taxi and this is going to work at infrastructure. >> i can look at this and see it working in japan, even in parts of the west, actually, because i'd like to get my own hands on one. but i wonder if it's going to be as successful in parts of south asia where there are severe power outages, power cuts, where there's just not the same
developed infrastructure to handle these kinds of vehicles. >> so along the idea is, you know, this works for mobility, but also works as kind of the power -- system. so this could contribute to, you know, power outage area as a -- so it's what we -- today what we were thinking about. >> and i want to ask you specifically, because we were talking about japan today, so much about the company. you're one of the big companies there. there is going to be an export product. are you confident in japan's future? >> as you mentioned, there are many giant companies within bikes and full view. however, companies like, you know, in japan is not much
enthusiasm for spreading the ev because of, you know, abe. so, for example, joint company is built on the, you know, petro driven mobility and they have many engineers and engineers who have expertise from petrol driven engine. >> right. which will be another add challenge. nevertheless, i wouldn't be surprised, ross, if we start to see these vehicles do well in parts of the well. >> thank you so much tore your time, sir, vice president of terra motors corporation. now, facebook wants to be the new home on your smartphone. the social networking site is rolling out a new swooit of
mobile of the swear, making its most lucrative push into the market. what's facebook looking the at this announcement? that's right. >> we don't want to build a phone or operating system that only some people are going to be able to use. we want to build the best experience for every person on every phone. >> zuckerberg saying it's people, not apps, fist. a new feature called chat heads allows you to chat with friends via facebook or sms while using other apps. available the 12th, zuckerberg says the company will roll out more announcements and updates. on april 12th, htc will chart selling the htc first for $99, selling it exclusively through at&t. paul jacobs, ceo of qualcomm
which power tess devices is announcing it's working facebook to allow facebook and facebook app to run smoothly. >> we're excited about the experience they're going to bring in the with the smartphone. shake things up a little bit. we're always interested to see partners that will bring out events to get the consumer excited. >> investors seem confident that it will eventually boost the company's bottom line. the stock moved higher on the announcement. from facebook's headquarters, i'll julia boorstin. still to come, we're going to preview the jobs report and break down president obama's late he budget plan. york? in the neww a new property tax cap... and the lowest middle class income tax rate in 60 years... and a billion dollars in tax breaks and incentives. new opportunities for business. over 250,000
new private sector jobs were created over the last two years. and 17 straight months of job growth. with the most private sector jobs ever. lower taxes, new incentives, new jobs, now that's news. to grow or start your business in the new new york visit thenewny.com [ male announcer ] let's say you pay your guy around 2% to manage your money.
welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm kelly evans. >> and i'm ross westgate. here with your headlines today. >> billionaire investor george soros worries about the bank of japan's monetary boost. he says it would turn the yen's fall into an avalanche. >> what japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because they are doing it after 25 years of just simply accumulating deficits. >> another month of steady job gains is seen boosting the u.s. economy even as washington plans to tighten its belt with painful
budget cuts. european stocks hitting a one-month low. bank shares in both companies define warnings from fitch and moody's. plus, samsung forecasts a 50% profit jump for the first quarter as the korean tech giant benefits from mobile phone sales in emerging markets. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bringing you business news from around the globe. >> well, the oscillating trend we've seen in u.s. markets looks set to continue today. futures are pointed down by about 20 points off the dow. the nasdaq and the s&p lower, as well. it's interesting because we have seen such different trading activity. we're up one day and down the next. i think the stretch, 12 days or something like that, is the longest since back in 2009. searching for direction, certainly a key theme. take a look at what's happening overnight. we're just about bang on flat, up 0.02%. the nikkei has continued to do well in japan, but hong kong down sharply on worries about
actually another strain of bird flu that could be going around. so look to european markets. and today, again, after the european central bank's policy moves or lack thereof yesterday are seeing the ftse down about 0.6%. red arrows, as well, for the xetra dax. the cac 40 in paris, this even though the government bonds this morning has hit a fresh record low. the ibex is bucking the trend adding 0.8%. >> there's an interesting spillover effect that seems to be going on from investors. if you believe the bank of japan is actually going to work, then what you might indeed get is japanese investors saying, we are going to restart the carry trade and that means money going abroad and they're going to fix income so what they may need to start doing is buying yields in spain and italy. that will support the banks and, therefore, they rally, as well. so that may be one of the reasons why.
ten-year italian yields lower today. ten-year french yields have been down at record low webs 1.82%. ten-year japanese yields at the moment, 0.52%. we have been trading between 0.32% and 0.65% today on the yield spop a volatile session in japan. there's a real question mark, really, from investors about whether they think yields are going to go to zero or whether it's an opportunity to get out. so that's the big space on japanese yield. take a look at the currency markets, dollar/yen earlier this morning where we hit a 3 1/2 low for the yen. currently at 96.31 is. three big basis points were moved yesterday. 3.6% was the move on the dollar versus the yen. aussie/dollar, 1.0425. the move, really, has always been focused on the yen against our currencies, as well. that's why we stand right now here in europe. in asia, it's been a tale of what's going on in japan versus
the rest. sixuan, start the update for us. hi, sixuan. >> thank you, ross. and those asian markets wrapped up the week on a negative note with the exception of japan. the nikkei's spree continued bolstered by the boj's aggressive easing steps with equities adding 1.6% after jumping over 5% during the past two sessions. the real estate subindex poured almost 12% after yesterday's 7% surge on reflationary policies. deutsche bank raised its priet target on four property majors while reiterating its spy rating on them. the mainland and taiwan markets are shut for a holiday and the hang seng came back today taking it on the chin, down 4.7%. kelly just mentioned rising worries of a new bird flu strain in china hurt airline companies particularly. and we saw a broad based sell-off in industrials minging
bank. analysts say they could be due to a new set of funds after the boj's aggressive easing. a grim picture in south korea where the kospi extended a five-day losing streak with the north. automakers continued to tumble after hundred die and kia motor announced car recalls in the u.s. samsung electronics not able to get a lift by that better than expected preliminary earnings numbers. in australia, the asx 200 eased another 0.5% after the u.s. employment data. back to you. >> all right. sixuan, thanks for that. george soros has warned the bank of japan could be pursuing dangerous monetary policy, referring to the $1.4 trillion easing program. he said in an exclusive cnbc interview that while the new governor has shown courage, the move could send the yen into free fall. what japan is doing is actually
quite dangerous. >> dangerous? >> yes. because they are doing it after 25 years of just simply accumulating deficits and not getting the economy going. so if what they are doing they're getting something started, they may not be able to stop it. >> this is what's so interesting about the whole situation with japan is you can look at it as a win-win or a lose-lose. but either what they're going to do is going to work or if you're talking about massive real weakness in the yen, you could see big sell-off in japanese bonds and a struggle with regard to inflation. if it doesn't work, they're in the same situation they are now, which is to say not very much better. >> have we got the nikkei since november? i mean, it just reminds you -- >> we're up now 30, 40 -- >> there we go. 43%. >> extraordinary. >> since november the 1st. >> and this is where if you were a retail japanese investor or
even institutional or whatever and you listened to abe back when he came into power in november and you've been putting on equities, you'd be doing so well. but the rest of the world, are they doing better? >> most people would have hedged the yen now. >> yeah. you would hold. >> that's the great thing about britain, isn't it? >> yeah. >> pivoting our attention to focus on the u.s., we do have, yes, the march jobs report out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. expectations for another month of solid if unspectacular hiring. and, in fact, that forecast which is the official dow jones forecast is probably higher than what people are looking for at the moment. 200,000 is the level. but if you listen to what we've seen in light of the peer reports and jobless claims, it's probably more like the 160,000, 170,000 like. that will be the difference between a disappointment or not. the unemployment rate, too, important to watch given the
fed's speculation. 7.7%. so we're going to keep an eye on labor force participation and whether that headline moves around or not. joining us now, patrick o'keefe, director of research and former district secretary in the department of labor and julia koronado. great to see you guys as a team there back stateside. but maybe you can give us a sense of what the most important figure is to watch for julia starting in the report today. >> i think you touched on some of the main ones. how much of an impact of the sequester do we see, how broad based is the job -- are the job gains and then also the unemployment rate. do we make progress or do we actually backtrack perhaps because labor force participation starts to rise. that would be a positive signal if people are starting to come back into the later force.
so that wouldn't necessarily be a negative if the unemployment rate rose a touch because people are coming back. >> patrick, which one is going to be more telling, do you think, the number of jobs added or that unemployment rate? >> well, i think the jobs added is -- the unemployment rate is so misleading because of the denominator problem. but the jobs added and whether we start to see evidence as we have the past couple of years of a spring slowdown or whether we stay closer to 200,000 per month on, which would indicate that the momentum is going forward. as we've discussed before, it's also going to look at the employment rate, the portion of the population that has jobs. i think that's a better indicator of the human resource utilization than tun employment rate. >> do you agree with that, julia, that that's the bit that we are not be focused on? >> absolutely. the employment to population ratio is a key indicator of the growth potential of the u.s.
unfortunately, the healing there has been very, very slow. we've basically been treading water for the last few years. a little bit better than that. employing enough people to keep up with population growth but not really enough to reemploy the workers that were sidelined during the recession. so i think that is a key indicator for thinking about whether the u.s. is start to go enter a growth phase. i suspect we will see a little bit of a spring slowdown, perhaps, you know, we think some of the strength of the last three months was related to hurricane sandy rebuilding efforts. that showed up in a huge pick up in construction employment. that's probably a bit above trend. we maidz some softness there. that certainly showed up in the adp report. even if we do see some spring softness, that's not a disaster. but it does say that that healing path is going to be gradual rather than the u.s. sort of leading the global growth back to a robust outlook.
>> julia, we have seen this slow -- the last three years, right, we've started off confident, the s&p has hit it, you know, first half year high in march or april and then we've got fears about seeing the slowdown again. this year, how different or how similar is it going to be? >> well, you know, my forecast, i started off this year thinking we would have weakness in the first half because of fiscal tightening or a strong finish. but it looks like we're once again gravitating towards a forecast that is firm around the edges and soft in the middle. it looks like the consumer response to higher taxes is going to be somewhat delayed. the sequester is probably going to flatten things out. meanwhile, we got a bit of a turbo charge from the hurricane sandy rebuilding. so it looks like we are going to get more moderate numbers in q2. our own forecast is for a 3% annualized growth performance in
the first quarter followed by a 1% quarter in q2. as an economist, i want to move through those things. but from the market perspective, there may be jitters around whether the u.s. is no longer the driver of the global growth scene. >> we'll leave it there for a second and come back in a couple of minutes to julia and patrick. in the meantime, i want to call your attention to something happening on the geopolitical front. iran has a nuclear proposal out there aiming a new bedrock for cooperation. this according to dow jones news wire. it says it has made specific proposals with regard to nuclear talks on the p5 plus one. we're continuing to follow that story for you, as well. >> and we've asked you to nail the nonfarm payroll number ahead of today's payrolls report. it was tweeted 6,000 new jobs, nerdygroover tweeted 99,000.
>> i love that twitter handle. >> keep your responses coming. @cnbc.com, @cnbcwhite sox. >> it's about 161,000 responses. that is just staying on the whisper number. very telling. >> it works. >> tweet us directly. italy is scrambling to end its political crisis. find out why our next guest says elections may be inevitable. welcome to the new new york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started.
a recap of the headlines today -- >> billionaire investor george soros telling cnbc exclusively that the bank of japan could be walking a dangerous line with monetary easing. samsung tops estimates with better-than-expected earnings. and all eyes on u.s. jobs report, the white house laying out new budget plans. the italian government will have to issue more bonds this year than originally planned, this according to a senior treasury sourt on reuters. the move was designed going back to a promise made by former premier mario monti to pay back billions of dollars of unpaid pills about to companies through 2014.
meanwhile, tich warned that impairment charges will remain high due to a weak economy. the outlook for the sector remains low. this as rome scrambles to resolve its political crisis and form a new government. tina forum joins us now. great to see you. what happens next in italy? >> well, there are a number of signs. the known knowns that we know are going to happen and is one of the most important ones is that the president has to resign. presidential elections are coming up. the italian constitution is very complicated, but what we understand is that neapolitano is going to want to make sure there is some kind of a solution in place. we know he doesn't want another unwieldy government and new elections the. >> ultimately, there's no coalition formed from the last time around. >> well, he's already made one proposal, right?
which is this collection of stages or wise men in the committees. that's the kind of solution we were expecting. it doesn't resolve the turmoil, but it gives the mainstream parties more time and that's what's important. >> how much time are they going to need? >> well, i think -- >> a lot. >> the wild card here, as everyone now knows is the five-star movement. it's unclear whether their support will continue to consolidate or whether like a lot of these other new parties we've seen in the eurozone, they see a spike and recede. >> if i was now campaigning -- i'm not saying i believe it, but if i had a tactical play here and post cyprus and you were running on a slightly anti-establishment ticket, you know, you'd be able to hold up so i could see and go, you can't trust anybody running europe. they wanted to take your money, depositors money in a cyprus bailout. that would be quite a motive to think. i imagine they've garnered more support. >> well, we agree with you. we think that the cyprus
president is going to be ammunition for other anti-establishment movements. while many in markets think that -- and understand that cyprus was special, they sort of buy the idea that eurozone politicians try to put out there, we think that it is excellent ammunition. >> earlier on and earlier on in the program, we talked about, you happen, we need a new generation. he pointed out the mayor of florence. i don't know. i don't know the mayor of florence, but he said there is a hunger now for perhaps supporting a new breed or completely new generation of politicians. >> quite right. that's mayor ramsey and they call him the obama of italian politics. he's young, he is a reformer and he's clearly thrown down the gauntlet to bersani. the intergenerational conarthritic with a clear element in the rise of the movement, there was a mainstream party like the pd can kind of take back that momentum.
>> and he is the one to watch, do you think? >> absolutely, he is the one to watch and he's making a challenge for the leadership. straight ahead on the program, tensions heating up on the korean peninsula amid reports the north has moved two missiles to the east coast. we'll have more on that issue specifically when we come back. with the spark miles card from capital one, bjorn earns unlimited rewards for his small business. take these bags to room 12 please. [ garth ] bjorn's small business earns double miles on every purchase every day. produce delivery. [ bjorn ] just put it on my spark card. [ garth ] why settle for less? ahh, oh! [ garth ] great businesses deserve unlimited rewards. here's your wake up call. [ male announcer ] get the spark business card from capital one and earn unlimited rewards. choose double miles or 2% cash back on every purchase every day. what's in your wallet? [ crows ] now where's the snooze button?
the industrial complex it shares with the north. this according to the country's unification minister who reiterated the country will do whatever it takes to protect workers' safety. all this as south korea ya's foreign minister says they have moved missiles to the east coast. the situation there appears to be escalating. what is actually happening? tina is here to help us make sense of it. is this heated rhetoric or should we be paying attention to this warmongering from the north? >> certainly there's a lot of noise and escalated rhetoric. but we think there are a number of pieces in the region, as well. we don't dismiss it altogether. >> what's going on here? >> one of the things that we think is really important, april 15th is the anniversary of the birth of the current ruler's grandfather, the founders of the dprk. in the run up to that anniversary, we expect to see some actual moves going on. we expect to see that continue
partly because it may give him an opportunity to then say he averted the crisis or a conflict with the republic of korea and the west. >> so investors, are they right to be largely shrugging all this off? >> in a sense, yes. but let's go back to 2010. remember that the north korean republic sunk a battleship, killing dozens of soldiers and there was shelling on an island. so the possibility of a small scale conventional military attack is real. we do think, though, that the signals coming from the united states with the movement of the b-bombers, for example, is clearly designed to telegraph that if such an event were to happen in this environment, there would be retaliation. >> could it have the opposite impact? sent there to be a warning, it could be seen as provocation. >> that's the risk. when you have this many signaling going on, and that's how we would think about it in
terms of international, the risks are real and is we really point to the changing dynamics in the region. >> and the key is whether -- you know, are we seeing anything now that we haven't seen before? and that's what people say is relacking about it, saying, look, this is in line with -- >> yeah. i mean, in terms of what to watch for, we haven't seen troops on the boarders. that would be a signal of real intent. the moving the bombers, the reactivating of the nuclear reactor, those are gestures which signal intent but are not in themselves readiness for an attack. so i would look for troops massing before investors should get really worried. good to see you. thanks very much for joining us. have a good weekend. chevron has completed repairs to the part of its san francisco area refinery that was damaged in a massive fire last year. reports say production won't
resume at the richmond facility until it receives final regulatory approval. but that's expected by the end of june. chevron has fined $1 million. >> it's also a big day for jp penny. the struggle b department store opens its first home goods boutique which is something ceo ron johnson said it key to its turn around efforts. they'll be anchored by companies like jonathan add letter and michael graves. jcpenney's will only be able to sell some martha stewart branded products, as well. the two retailers have until monday to settle that case or it will head back to court. jcpenney's is responding up 4.48%. the chairman of the board
has resigned, coming under fire for his role. to other board members who barely kept their seats but are leaving, activist investor ralph whitworth, he joined hp in 2011 when meg whitman became the ceo. hp stock in frankfurt barely moving. straight ahead on the program, the countdown is under way for, yes, the all-important jobs report. we'll tell you what to look out for when we come back. we'll leave but a look at how futures are trading ahead of the open. it is red arrows.
itself with painful budge cuts. >> the green tech giant benefiting from mobile phone calls in emerging markets. >> announcer: you're watching "worldwide exchange," bridging you business news from around the globe. the fluctuation in the u.s. stock markets continues. here is a look at futures. the dow looking to shed a little more than 20 points, same for the nasdaq and the s&p 500. we haven't seen a string of consistent gains or losses ahead of the jobs report later this morning. investors are looking for direction here. and across europe, it's a broadly weak tone with the ftse down 0.7% in london. the xetra dax is down 0.25 and
the cac 40 down 0.3%. the ibex is breaking trend, up 0.7%. how do you make money? here is what some of our guests have been telling us on the program all morning. >> just because of what the bank of japan has done, too, i think there's is risk upside potential here. i think it's fought going to be a smooth ride, necessarily. >> some of the high yielding peripheral markets, you get yields up if they become interesting to investors again, for sure. i prefer a half step away from it to say, look, in the uk we don't have this credit problem. we have the likelihood of mormon tear easing coming through. so the gilt market looks to me relati relatively -- >> we've seen big, big sell off in mining.
we've seen big sell off in steel. banks are down 5% in europe, as well. it's been the retailers, the pharma stock. so it's very difficult to d ntanthemes as to whether they're fundamental. you know, when we get that fundamental push, an equities start going up fundamentally, it's going to have to be the cheap stocks that win and it will be the cyclicals. >> now, we've got the u.s. jobs report coming out in just a couple of hours time. first, though, i want to keep you posted on developments out of europe. we're continue to go hear from european central bank officials this morning and in particular we've got mersch saying eu funds should be in the form avenue credit. talking about resolution funds needs to be financed by banks. >> the bailin is the point. whenever we get to this. >> it will be a bailin, no more bailout. >> exactly.
>> but the interesting thing is, yesterday you heard how much draghi was in the press conference saying cyprus was not a template. he was vehement, frankly. >> he was toeing the pr line. >> this resolution framework is coming into place. there will be bailins. so mersch giving us some idea of that happening. turning our attention to the u.s., jobs report due out at 8:30 eastern. expectations call for a decent month of jobs growth. the real question is whether this is seasonal issues or the sign of potential softness. you can see there, february 236,000, so it's important to watch for revisions and, of course, what all of this means for the headline unemployment rate that is so important to the fed, as well. nouriel roubini joined the chorus of economists yesterday suggesting the sequester cuts
will weigh on growth. >> the u.s. economic recovery will be -- because next year's growth is going to be morrow bust. there's great losses still the effect of the sequester, still the inability to agree on a number of policies the. >> patrick o'keefe and julia coronado. patrick, nouriel is drawing attention to the budget. we know there will be further cuts on the way. is that more important than the jobs report this morning? >> not this morning. this is jobs friday. that's the most important thing. but i think he makes a good point. the increases in taxes that we've put in place in january, both payrolls and income, are going to have significant drag. i'm just not sold on the fact that the marginal cuts that we're getting by sequester really deserve the attention for the fiscal drag that we're getting on the tax side. >> so you're saying the economy is strong enough to handle this
headwind. >> it's going to reduce the rate of growth. it's not going to tip us back into negative growth or zero growth, but it is certainly going to have some marginal impact on the pace of growth this year. >> julia, can you comment, as well, on the kinds of job gains that are expected? because it's interesting, a lot of people lately are drawing attention to, for example, what happens when we add a construction job, the marginal impact that has on the economy relative to, say, some of the more service sector work. >> so, first of all, on the sequest we shall i'd say that i do think some of the estimates that have been floating out there are a little bit overdone. i think a lot of the budget cutting is going to get done through reduced hours worked and furloughs by federal employees. so i think the impact on headline payroll sess going to be much more modest. we will see bigger layoffs, both from private sector contractors and the federal sector itself. but i don't think it's a real game changer for the economy.
in terms of the composition of other sectors, it's been a big driver of the pick up in jobs over the last three months. and let's put this into perspective. the hurricane sandy rebuilding efforts, congressional indicated $50 billion for those rebuilding efforts and that has been going on now. and in contrast the sequester takes off 42 billion from the federal budget. so the rebuilding from hurricane sandy, which we've been feeling right now in the economy, is larger in size than the budget cuts under the sequester. so i think that's an important drivers of the gains. those gains probably won't continue. we'll see some flattening out there and the reduced take home of federal workers will reduce the spending and not necessarily show up in payroll. so i think payroll growth is going to show up on a steady track as we maybe see some in the flattening out in the growth momentum. >> was your takeout on the contribution from housing as
well as construction? >> i think housing is going to drive the construction numbers. the housing story is one now of sustained growth. but the headlines that we're reading about, this boom in housing, are well overstated. we are coming off historically low levels of production. we are seeing an employment benefit from the residential turn around, significant, but not -- doesn't justify the headlines telling us housing is driving the economy. >> we're going the to talk about the budget. president obama appears plan which will be released on wednesday reportedly cuts the u.s. deficit by $1.8 trillion over the years. the "new york times" says the plan includes entitlement cuts used the so-called chained cpi to calculate cost of living increases. that's supported by republicans
but opposed by many democrats. the journal suggests the president's budget would include a 28% limit on tax breaks for the wealthiest americans. julia, if those two proposals are indeed included, what would you make of it? >> i'm pretty conceptual of the president's budget proposal. most of the proposals we've seen are posturing documents, not really aimed at getting a job done. we've seen the chained cpi being put on the stable several times. unfortunately, i think the most likely outcome is we'll be jumping from one budget to another with no grand entitlement reform. i hope president obama is learning better how to negotiate a real budget, but that's not my baseline expectation. >> patrick, i don't know if you
agree with julia, if you did and we're moving around from one plan to the next, are people going to say we're still not getting our act together in washington and, therefore, it's going to dent confidence? >> i think outside the beltway, the general economy has decided that it's going to have to make its calculations on the assumption that washington will remain gridlocked, that the grand bargain, as julia referred to it, is what the private sector is interested in, not this political bickering, which really hasn't given us a rationale budget in almost a decade now when we really go back and look to weigh the defense expenditures were being treated. so, you know, from the general economy's perspective, washington is viewed as a source of rtai as a source of economic stimulus. >> now, you could argue that ben bernanke has been running economic policy, but speaking of which, t rumor mill is spinning about who will take the top job at the fed next january. according to bob jen juah, he
says the real focus is on who ben bernanke's successor might be. he suggested one of the top picks, janet yellen, wouldn't be a top pick for stable markets. >> i think she's far looser or more dovish than bernanke. i think she's potentially perceived as such a loose cannon that it would scare the bond market. bernanke still has a level of credibility with the market. >> to find out what else he had to say about the future of the fed, head to cnbc.com for the full roundup. i want to get back to julia on this point. a lot of people and said if yellen succeeds bernanke, a lot of people would like that. >> what do you think of the point? >> i couldn't disagree more. to call janet yellen a loose canon, i don't know which sxwranette yellen he knows. but janet yellen, if you look at
her speeches and her track report, she is one of the most measured, experienced people. i can she will take the role when ben bernanke steps down next year. i think she's clearly the most qualified and i think markets would have a great deal of confidence. she's not the crazy dove that sometimes people make her out to be. she's a very reasonable person. she's a very good economist. and she's been there every step of the way through these policies. i think that's critical is that that person knows hesitate policies, knows how they've developed, knows what the think is and how they impact markets. she's the woman. >> all right. well, we know where you stand on that, then. thanks, julia. patrick, we may as well get your view. patrick, are you in the julia camp or the bob camp? >> i think the vice chair is more than capable of taking over the chair of the fed and
continuous on the policy they've embarked upon. whether that policy is a wise policy is the real question. but she would be more than able to make the decision to change course when the fed sees data that justifies that. there is no basis for criticizing her capabilities. >> patrick, thank you for that and julia, good to see you both. thanks. have a great weekend. >> thank you. >> and theirs will start a little later than for us. coming up, the high stakes gamble playing out in a las vegas courtroom with major ip preliminarication implications for casino operators around the world. with the spark cash card
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read back the chicken's testimony, please. "buk, buk, bukka!" [ male announcer ] get the spark business card from capital one and earn unlimited rewards. choose 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase every day. told you i'd get half. what's in your wallet? welcome back to the program. these are your headlines. george soros tells us in an exclusive interview, the bank of japan could be walking a dangerous line with its monetary easing. >> all eyes on the nonfarm payroll reports. >> and samsung topping estimates was better-than-expected earnings guidance, a solid growth in emerging markets. >> we're counting down to the all-important u.s. jobs numbers. we preview the trading day ahead. still to come on the program -- >> send in your guesses. we've got a running tally of
a major player in the gaming industry and over lost wages. what is it all about? let's get to the man who knows. brian joins us stateside. hey, brian, good to see you. what's going on? >> good to see you, ross. he was on the stand yesterday, casino mogul sheldon anderson who runs las vegas sands, made a rare appearance thursday testifying in a high profile breach of contract lawsuit in sin city. take a look at the man right here, richard stewen. he claims he's owed $3.8 million for helping license a company in
macau. but adelson, who is 79 years old, entered the courthouse on a motorized scooter. it's almost comical, but it's not. it's real. he says the meeting didn't help sands, noting licenses are given out by officials in macau and on to the mainland. less than an hour into his testimony, he presented a stack of propossessional brochures for his business that were not okayed to be used for business. he says he was using the brochures to show they didn't need help marketing. sands has become one of the largest casinos. he's the ninth wealthiest man in america with a net worth of $26.5 billion. a jury awarding stewen more than $58 million in damages, but the nevada supreme court overturned
the verdict in 2010. so the court case continues today. >> brian, speaking of debates, battles, is it going to be louisville, wichita, michigan or syracuse? >> you're talking about the final four, kelly. i love the fact that you bring it up. we have in the u.s. basketball terms is the best time of the career. you have syracuse against michigan and louisville against wichita state. you're looking at video of louisville and kevin ware with that horrible break of his leg. i think they're a little too inspired, kelly. i think it will be wichita state. we have so many annoying syracuse guards at cnbc so i'm going to go michigan. >> brian, do you know my mother was a cheerleader for syracuse university. that is true. true story. >> that is not enough to make me change my mind. >> look, i'm pulling -- >> any program in particular, brian, we should watch to kind of get the story around the
final four? >> yeah. any way we can make look at business and sports, brian, together? >> yeah. you can watch me any time on cnbc covering the world of sports business. the final four, the biggest story about the final four and the ncaa basketball tournament is gambling. and it's good gambling mostly that's not authorized. it's over a $1 billion business. we call it brackets. people trying to pick the winners. there were 8 misdemeanor people on espn.com who filled out a bracket. and i think less than 50 picked this combination in the final four. >> and it's like one in a quadrillion have a chance of winning. >> it's not like the premier league where it's like the same four teams on top every year. >> who is going to win, then? >> i think it will be louisville. >> come on. wrong answer. it will be syracuse. come on. >> all right. brian, thanks. >> big orange. thank you, brian.
>> from orange to red and green, here is what's happening across europe. >> further. >> look at the ftse, almost 1%. now better than 11%. really picking up here. the xetra dax, as well. we are testing key support levels. not happening down almost 1.2% on the xetra dax. now i'm scanning news wires to see if there's anything in particular that drives that decline. >> we have jobs reports out today at 8:30. it really is going to be about the employment reports. >> or is it? todd wohorwitz joins us now. todd, what's your guess? >> good morning, kelly. good morning, ross. i think the jobs number is going to be key, but i think the number will be under 150. the bond market has been on a
rally this entire week. i think this might be the final tipping factor that helps this market start to correct a little bit here. >> another spring swoon, is it going to be four years in a row, adam? >> you know, i think it's a pretty good bet. we are up 18% in november and about 11% this year. so a good natural sell-off, correction, is healthy for the market. it has nothing to do with whether the if you fundamentals are changing. it's healthy to get selling pressure so we can create volatility. >> sorry. i said adam, todd. it's the end of the week. look, so you talk about the next potential leg, is that -- if we're going into the construction phase, how long? >> you know, i think we -- i think we're going to look probably for somewhere between a 6% to 10% correction here. and that would probably take us,
you know, through the second quarter through the summer. you know, i look for, as usual, the fourth quarter to be very strong. typically, summer, summer doldrums coming into the spring. i look for a little selling pressure here. i think you'll see we've been up so long and so hard here that the market just needs a breather here. and you can see by the way the tape is acting, those are the iems of stocks that have been rallying in the next couple of weeks. >> tau. is there any big indicator here? >> well, i'd like to make you smile and see syracuse, but i think consensus is louisville. >> todd horwitz, thank you very
much. we've been asking you all morning to nail the nonfarm payrolls numbers. tito from california is going with 194,000. jeff says it's going to be 185. todd thinks it will be below 150. we have some e-mails that put it over 200,000, as well. >> and hillco, a u.s. company, says it has bought 1141 hmv source. it's been in an administration. they're buying 141 of those stores out from administrator which would save 240,000 jobs. >> perhaps it can do something with that real estate. >> yeah. are they going to staying with musical or -- >> bricks and mortar musical business. anyway, that's it for today or this week's edition of "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next. they have the countdown to the employment report and the markets from kelly and i -- >> have a great weekend. we'll see you back here next
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good morning. it's jobs friday. the stakes couldn't be higher. it's a big deal. stocks have been on a record run, but recent employment data has given investors a cause for concern. it's friday, april 5th, 2013. "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe